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Expectations of the labor market from AI in Türkiye

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In recent years, AI technologies have rapidly spread across all fields, transforming processes and workflows in various domains. From education to health care, from transportation to the defense industry, and from the arts to finance and the service sector, there is virtually no area left untouched by AI applications. In particular, the widespread daily use of generative AI tools like ChatGPT and DeepSeek by people of all ages indicates that the cycle is complete and a new ecosystem has emerged. Consequently, AI has now become a central focus of countries’ economic competitiveness. Intense competition continues among nations to develop these technologies and to secure a larger share of the existing and future economic value they generate.

The emergence of the AI ecosystem is also leading to profound transformations in labor markets. Just as institutions and businesses are reevaluating their operational processes, fundamental changes are also occurring in job positions. With the widespread adoption of AI technologies, some job positions are disappearing, while the skill sets required for existing jobs are shifting. Moreover, the newly emerging job roles often demand new – and generally more advanced – skills. Therefore, if the challenge posed by these technologies affects all areas, the response to this challenge must also be comprehensive. In this competitive environment, which influences every sector, it will be inevitable to fall behind unless strategic steps are taken in a holistic manner.

Reports evaluating the impact and opportunities of AI technologies in Türkiye are critically important for shaping future strategies. In this context, a report titled “The Economic Potential of Artificial Intelligence in Türkiye” was published in May 2024 by professor Altan Çakır. The report emphasized that if the opportunities presented by generative AI are effectively harnessed, it could contribute an additional 5% – equivalent to $50 billion-$60 billion –to Türkiye’s annual GDP within approximately a decade. This added economic value is expected to stem from increased productivity among workers utilizing the technology, as well as from reallocating saved time to other value-generating activities. The report also found that generative AI technologies could have an impact on approximately 55% of current job positions. Furthermore, it highlighted three key regulatory actions necessary to realize the potential economic benefits and employment effects projected: retraining the workforce and equipping them with new skills, enhancing R&D efforts by local innovative actors, and accelerating commercial breakthroughs.

In April, a new report titled “The Generative AI Revolution: Global Impacts and Türkiye’s Position” (TÜSİAD-T/2025-04/648) was published. The report’s projections for Türkiye are based on findings from a survey conducted between December 2024 and January 2025, as well as one-on-one interviews held with selected businesses. In other words, the report provides insights into how companies are responding to AI technologies. According to the report, 19% of the surveyed businesses are widely implementing these technologies, while 50% are in the pilot phase, and the rest are in the preparation or planning stages. The proportion of businesses that do not consider AI technologies a current priority is remarkably low (6%).

When examining the areas in which businesses are using these technologies, the top priorities appear to be operational processes (27%), customer services (20%), and product/service development (18%). The fact that the same priorities emerge in projections for future focus areas indicates that businesses in Türkiye are primarily viewing these technologies as an opportunity to enhance efficiency through automation and to improve their capacity for personalized services.

Although businesses’ evaluations and expectations regarding the transformative impact of AI technologies on their industries are quite high (50% “high” and 24% “groundbreaking”), they largely anticipate these expectations to be realized in the medium (53%) or long term (22%). Moreover, despite expecting transformative effects in the medium or long term, many businesses are determined to invest in these technologies either immediately (39%) or in the short term (34%), without waiting. Businesses expect the transformative impacts of AI technologies to emerge primarily in the automation of business processes (16%), employee productivity (16%), customer experience (14%) and cost reduction (13%).

The fact that businesses cite security and privacy concerns (20%), lack of talent and expertise (19%), investment costs or uncertainties regarding return on investment timelines (19%), insufficient data and data quality issues (19%), and regulatory and legal ambiguities (13%) as barriers to realizing the transformative potential of AI technologies indicates that there are underlying concerns about building an AI ecosystem in Türkiye. The similarity of the major risks perceived in integrating these technologies into business processes further highlights the presence of significant uncertainty. Accordingly, the relatively low proportion of businesses that have fully adopted these technologies (19%) and the fact that half are still in the pilot phase align with the finding that such uncertainties are preventing full-scale implementation.

Responses to the question of how the workforce in various sectors will be transformed by the disruptive impact of AI technologies reveal that expectations regarding their effects on labor are complex. For example, 31% of businesses believe that “workforce skills and capabilities will improve, and employees will take on more advanced and complex tasks,” while 30% think that “the workforce will decline slightly, with some job positions becoming automated.” Additionally, 23% believe that “the size of the workforce will remain the same, but the nature of jobs will change.” If the nature of work is expected to shift and automation becomes widespread, leading to greater efficiency, it is evident that the workforce will decline significantly. In fact, the report cites Işbank’s Hakan Aran as saying, “I believe there will be disruptive and transformative effects in the banking sector. Many operational processes will be handled by generative AI agents within two years. Today, there is discussion in the U.S. that call centers will largely be operated by generative AI agents within 1-2 years.” This statement clearly warns that increasing efficiency through widespread automation enabled by these technologies will have a serious negative impact on employment.

Moreover, it remains highly uncertain how many employees will actually benefit from the expectation that workers will take on more advanced and complex tasks. This uncertainty is also reflected in the responses businesses gave to the question of how they are preparing their current workforce for the anticipated future. Only 30% of businesses reported that they are organizing training programs to develop generative AI skills. Instead of offering training programs, others are either encouraging adaptation to the new situation (29%) or relying on external experts and consultants to inform their employees (19%). Additionally, 12% of businesses have made no plans in this regard at all.

In summary, the findings of the report indicate that while businesses exhibit high awareness of the opportunities offered by AI technologies and hold expectations for their benefits to materialize in the medium to long term, their determination to make investment plans in the short term represents a significant opportunity. However, the risks they perceive in realizing the transformative potential of these technologies point to the need for focused development in this area and the elimination of uncertainties. The most critical issue in the integration of AI technologies is equipping employees with the new skills required by these technologies. Training in this area will not only ensure a healthy integration process but also help mitigate the negative impacts of these technologies on the workforce. Otherwise, significant job losses will be inevitable. Yet, it appears that businesses are not taking sufficient steps in this regard.

The World Economic Forum’s “Future of Jobs Report 2025” emphasizes the critical importance of retraining human capital in labor markets undergoing profound transformation due to AI technologies. In the face of these structural shifts, reskilling and upskilling are no longer optional – they have become imperative for strengthening the workforce. Indeed, the report underlines this urgency by stating, “If the global workforce consisted of 100 people, 59 of them would need training by 2030,” highlighting both the continuity of learning in dynamic labor markets and the growing importance of lifelong education. In other words, lifelong learning and skill renewal are no longer optional tools for career advancement, as they were in the past – they have now become essential for survival in today’s labor markets, which are subject to constant structural transformation driven by the dynamic processes outlined above.

On the other hand, businesses’ general reliance solely on automation for productivity gains poses a risk from a labor perspective. While automation can increase productivity, it often has a negative impact on employment. However, productivity can also be enhanced through the complementary use of these technologies alongside human labor. Numerous studies indicate that AI technologies, in particular, improve the performance and productivity of workers with low to medium skill levels. Therefore, leveraging these technologies in this manner demonstrates that it is possible to increase overall productivity in businesses without adversely affecting employment. For this to be achieved, however, businesses must prioritize comprehensive training programs for all employees. The findings of the report also highlight this shortcoming, pointing to training as a key area for development.

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