Recent significant global developments have gradually revealed the framework of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The U.S. had recently lost much of its effective position in foreign policy. However, with Trump taking office, everything changed fundamentally overnight.
First and foremost, he made a bold claim about ending the war between Ukraine and Russia. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has been attempting to exploit Trump’s vulnerabilities, the process appears to be gradually getting on track. In a way, Trump seems poised to not only end the Russia-Ukraine War but also to push European states entirely outside the system.
At the very moment when Israel was making plans to attack Iran and trying to secure U.S. backing, the U.S. initiated a negotiation process with Iran. Moreover, in response to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the U.S. directly struck a deal with the Houthis to maintain the flow of commercial traffic in the ocean.
There was a growing perception that the Syrian issue had become increasingly complex and intractable to resolve. Then Trump stepped forward and said, “I said, ‘Congratulations, you’ve (President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) done what nobody’s been able to do in 2,000 years. You’ve taken over Syria,’” while also highlighting that the Turkish leader rejected this statement and adding that he doesn’t want to phrase it that way.
Trump’s Middle Eastern policy
Trump’s Middle East visit actually clarified several things. He focused on Saudi Arabia and, by including Türkiye, held a quadrilateral summit, immediately followed by lifting sanctions related to Syria. Subsequently, the EU also paved the way for removing sanctions on Syria.
These developments, in a way, signaled that Trump’s Middle East policy revolves around Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
The current U.S. administration believes that Türkiye’s alignment or rapprochement with the U.S. in key areas – from the Ukraine-Russia war to developments in the Middle East and Africa – would serve the broader interests of regional stability.
At this stage, we see that certain states are uneasy about the Trump-Erdoğan rapprochement. Primarily, Iran, which harbored imperial ambitions during the Obama era, is tacitly uncomfortable with this partnership and Türkiye’s growing regional influence.
Israel and Greece
On the other hand, Israel perceives Trump’s soft approach toward Türkiye – particularly in the context of Hamas relations and Türkiye’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean – as a serious threat and is disturbed by the Erdoğan-Trump rapprochement. However, suppose a government more aligned with the left, valuing democracy, and distinct from today’s extremist Zionists comes to power in Israel. In that case, the possibility arises for Türkiye and Israel to become two stabilizing forces in the region.
At a time when everything seems chaotic, with Israel appearing out of control and discussions about it potentially occupying the entire region, making such optimistic remarks might seem risky. But my projection is that Trump at least foresees the potential for a democratic Israel and a strong Türkiye to represent regional stability in the long term.
Although Greece, failing to fully grasp Türkiye’s growing power and strength, occasionally makes statements under the illusion that it can compete with Türkiye, Türkiye – as a regional power – views Greece as playing secondary or tertiary roles in such negotiations and struggles.
Europe stance
What’s most intriguing here is the stance of the U.K. and EU states toward Türkiye. Could Türkiye’s growing closeness with the U.S. be unsettling the U.K., which seeks leverage in the Middle East?
Meanwhile, while each EU state needs to strengthen its nation-state and security by drawing closer to Türkiye, this U.S.-Türkiye rapprochement may also be causing concern among EU members.
Erdoğan has built a strong Turkish infrastructure in the region. From energy ecosystems to education and health care, a robust foundation has been established. Particularly with the Turkish military bolstered by defense industries, Türkiye has directly become a regional power.
Erdoğan’s experienced leadership has, in a way, elevated Türkiye to a position of global diplomatic influence. In my view, Trump has taken a highly significant geopolitical step in this new era by aligning himself with Türkiye’s strength. This growing empowerment and shifting balance of power offer reassurance to many countries in Türkiye’s neighborhood while causing unease in others, notably Israel and Greece. How the EU will respond remains to be seen.
Yet, the Trump-Erdoğan alignment could pave the way for a significant reconfiguration of power extending from the Middle East to the Caucasus, from the Balkans to inner Asia and Africa.
